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2020 President · MN

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-14 (20 days before the election) · 1,021 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 44%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.40% · Republican 45.28%

D+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 44 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.395 − 45.285 = 7.110
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (7.110) = -2.110
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.110| = 2.110

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71455, race ID 6234 (538 database).