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2020 Governor · NC

East Carolina University Center for Survey Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 1,155 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 55.4% · Republican 43.3%

D+12.1

The certified result

Democrat 51.52% · Republican 47.01%

D+4.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55.4 − 43.3 = 12.10
  2. Actual margin = 51.516 − 47.005 = 4.511
  3. Signed miss = 12.10 − (4.511) = 7.590
  4. Absolute miss = |7.590| = 7.590

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71452, race ID 7824 (538 database).