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2020 President · NC

East Carolina University Center for Survey Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 1,155 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50.6% · Republican 47.4%

D+3.2

The certified result

Democrat 48.59% · Republican 49.93%

R+1.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.6 − 47.4 = 3.20
  2. Actual margin = 48.586 − 49.934 = -1.348
  3. Signed miss = 3.20 − (-1.348) = 4.548
  4. Absolute miss = |4.548| = 4.548

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71452, race ID 6238 (538 database).