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2020 President · UT

RMG Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-14 (20 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 50%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.65% · Republican 58.13%

R+20.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 50 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.646 − 58.130 = -20.484
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-20.484) = 8.484
  4. Absolute miss = |8.484| = 8.484

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71445, race ID 6255 (538 database).