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2020 Senate · KY

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2020-10-14 (20 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 51%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.23% · Republican 57.77%

R+19.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 51 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.231 − 57.765 = -19.534
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-19.534) = 10.534
  4. Absolute miss = |10.534| = 10.534

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71443, race ID 6276 (538 database).