2020 Senate · NC
ABC News/The Washington Post · fieldwork ended 2020-10-14 (20 days before the election) · 646 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 47%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.94% · Republican 48.69%
R+1.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 46.940 − 48.687 = -1.747
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (-1.747) = 3.747
- Absolute miss = |3.747| = 3.747
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71441, race ID 6284 (538 database).