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2020 Senate · GA

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-18 (16 days before the election) · 506 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 44.5% · Republican 46.1%

R+1.6

The certified result

Democrat 47.95% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.5 − 46.1 = -1.60
  2. Actual margin = 47.949 − 49.728 = -1.779
  3. Signed miss = -1.60 − (-1.779) = 0.179
  4. Absolute miss = |0.179| = 0.179

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71435, race ID 6271 (538 database).