2020 Senate · AL
Moore Information Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-13 (21 days before the election) · 504 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 40% · Republican 55%
R+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 39.74% · Republican 60.09%
R+20.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 40 − 55 = -15.00
- Actual margin = 39.737 − 60.095 = -20.358
- Signed miss = -15.00 − (-20.358) = 5.359
- Absolute miss = |5.359| = 5.359
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71434, race ID 6266 (538 database).