2020 President · AL
Moore Information Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-13 (21 days before the election) · 504 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 38% · Republican 55%
R+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 36.57% · Republican 62.03%
R+25.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 38 − 55 = -17.00
- Actual margin = 36.570 − 62.032 = -25.462
- Signed miss = -17.00 − (-25.462) = 8.462
- Absolute miss = |8.462| = 8.462
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71434, race ID 6212 (538 database).