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2020 House · MT-1

RMG Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 43.61% · Republican 56.39%

R+12.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.614 − 56.386 = -12.772
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-12.772) = 12.773
  4. Absolute miss = |12.773| = 12.773

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.8 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71363, race ID 8067 (538 database).