2020 Governor · MO
Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-14 (20 days before the election) · 1,010 respondents · IVR/Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 51%
R+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 40.69% · Republican 57.11%
R+16.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 51 = -8.00
- Actual margin = 40.692 − 57.106 = -16.414
- Signed miss = -8.00 − (-16.414) = 8.414
- Absolute miss = |8.414| = 8.414
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71240, race ID 7820 (538 database).