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2020 Governor · NC

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-13 (21 days before the election) · 721 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 50.3% · Republican 45.9%

D+4.4

The certified result

Democrat 51.52% · Republican 47.01%

D+4.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.3 − 45.9 = 4.40
  2. Actual margin = 51.516 − 47.005 = 4.511
  3. Signed miss = 4.40 − (4.511) = -0.110
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.110| = 0.110

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71161, race ID 7824 (538 database).