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2020 House · NY-24

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2020-10-13 (21 days before the election) · 789 respondents · IVR/Text · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 43%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.97% · Republican 45.41%

R+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 43 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.965 − 45.406 = -2.441
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-2.441) = 4.441
  4. Absolute miss = |4.441| = 4.441

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71158, race ID 8115 (538 database).