2020 Governor · NC
Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2020-10-13 (21 days before the election) · 1,211 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 46%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.52% · Republican 47.01%
D+4.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 46 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 51.516 − 47.005 = 4.511
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (4.511) = 2.490
- Absolute miss = |2.490| = 2.490
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71070, race ID 7824 (538 database).