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2020 President · CO

Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2020-10-13 (21 days before the election) · 1,013 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 42%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.40% · Republican 41.90%

D+13.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 42 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.400 − 41.898 = 13.502
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (13.502) = -1.502
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.502| = 1.502

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71069, race ID 6216 (538 database).