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2020 President · VA

Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2020-10-13 (21 days before the election) · 1,231 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 42%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.11% · Republican 44.00%

D+10.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 42 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.110 − 43.996 = 10.114
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (10.114) = 2.886
  4. Absolute miss = |2.886| = 2.886

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71068, race ID 6256 (538 database).