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2011 Governor · MS

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2011-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 796 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 54%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.02% · Republican 60.98%

R+22.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 54 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.018 − 60.982 = -21.964
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-21.964) = 7.963
  4. Absolute miss = |7.963| = 7.963

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 7, race ID 1270 (538 database).