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2018 Governor · MN

St. Cloud State University · fieldwork ended 2018-10-23 (14 days before the election) · 404 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 34%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.84% · Republican 42.43%

D+11.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 34 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.844 − 42.427 = 11.417
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (11.417) = 4.583
  4. Absolute miss = |4.583| = 4.583

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 66738, race ID 149 (538 database).