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2018 Senate · MN

St. Cloud State University · fieldwork ended 2018-10-23 (14 days before the election) · 420 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 29%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.97% · Republican 42.35%

D+10.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 29 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.971 − 42.351 = 10.620
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (10.620) = 4.381
  4. Absolute miss = |4.381| = 4.381

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 66738, race ID 129 (538 database).