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2018 Senate · MN

St. Cloud State University · fieldwork ended 2018-10-23 (14 days before the election) · 420 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 28%

D+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.31% · Republican 36.21%

D+24.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 28 = 26.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.310 − 36.214 = 24.096
  3. Signed miss = 26.00 − (24.096) = 1.904
  4. Absolute miss = |1.904| = 1.904

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 66738, race ID 107 (538 database).