2008 President · national
CBS News · fieldwork ended 2008-10-30 (5 days before the election) · 709 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 41%
D+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.76% · Republican 45.36%
D+7.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 41 = 11.00
- Actual margin = 52.760 − 45.360 = 7.400
- Signed miss = 11.00 − (7.400) = 3.600
- Absolute miss = |3.600| = 3.600
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 66248, race ID 38 (538 database).