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2000 President · national

Pew Research Center · fieldwork ended 2000-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 1,062 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 47%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.15% · Republican 47.66%

D+0.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 47 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.149 − 47.657 = 0.492
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (0.492) = -4.492
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.492| = 4.492

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 65847, race ID 40 (538 database).