2000 President · national
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-05 (2 days before the election) · 1,200 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 46%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.15% · Republican 47.66%
D+0.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 48.149 − 47.657 = 0.492
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (0.492) = 1.508
- Absolute miss = |1.508| = 1.508
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 65032, race ID 40 (538 database).