2000 Senate · WA
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-05 (2 days before the election) · 504 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 47%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.73% · Republican 48.64%
D+0.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 47 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 48.730 − 48.640 = 0.090
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (0.090) = 4.909
- Absolute miss = |4.909| = 4.909
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 65029, race ID 1713 (538 database).