2000 Senate · NY
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-05 (2 days before the election) · 689 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 48%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.19% · Republican 39.15%
D+12.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 48 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 51.187 − 39.148 = 12.039
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (12.039) = -9.038
- Absolute miss = |-9.038| = 9.038
The poll overstated the Republican by 9.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 65026, race ID 1703 (538 database).