2000 President · MO
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-05 (2 days before the election) · 597 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 48%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.08% · Republican 50.42%
R+3.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 48 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 47.084 − 50.423 = -3.339
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-3.339) = 2.339
- Absolute miss = |2.339| = 2.339
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 65025, race ID 830 (538 database).