2000 Senate · MO
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-05 (2 days before the election) · 597 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 49%
even
The certified result
Democrat 50.47% · Republican 48.39%
D+2.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 49 = 0.00
- Actual margin = 50.467 − 48.393 = 2.074
- Signed miss = 0.00 − (2.074) = -2.073
- Absolute miss = |-2.073| = 2.073
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and showed a tie.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 65025, race ID 1697 (538 database).