2000 Senate · FL
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-05 (2 days before the election) · 593 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 47%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.04% · Republican 46.19%
D+4.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 51.044 − 46.192 = 4.852
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (4.852) = -2.851
- Absolute miss = |-2.851| = 2.851
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 65023, race ID 1687 (538 database).