2000 Senate · MN
St. Cloud State University · fieldwork ended 2000-10-19 (19 days before the election) · 514 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 33%
D+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.83% · Republican 43.29%
D+5.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 33 = 15.00
- Actual margin = 48.834 − 43.293 = 5.541
- Signed miss = 15.00 − (5.541) = 9.458
- Absolute miss = |9.458| = 9.458
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6491, race ID 1695 (538 database).