2006 Governor · SD
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 35% · Republican 57%
R+22.0
The certified result
Democrat 36.13% · Republican 61.70%
R+25.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 35 − 57 = -22.00
- Actual margin = 36.132 − 61.695 = -25.563
- Signed miss = -22.00 − (-25.563) = 3.562
- Absolute miss = |3.562| = 3.562
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64710, race ID 1356 (538 database).