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2000 President · VT

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-18 (20 days before the election) · 628 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 38%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.63% · Republican 40.70%

D+9.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 38 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.635 − 40.697 = 9.938
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (9.938) = -0.938
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.938| = 0.938

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6463, race ID 852 (538 database).