Skip to content

2000 Senate · VT

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-18 (20 days before the election) · 628 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 23% · Republican 66%

R+43.0

The certified result

Democrat 25.43% · Republican 65.56%

R+40.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 23 − 66 = -43.00
  2. Actual margin = 25.425 − 65.557 = -40.132
  3. Signed miss = -43.00 − (-40.132) = -2.868
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.868| = 2.868

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6463, race ID 1711 (538 database).