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2000 Senate · OH

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-18 (20 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 54%

R+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 35.85% · Republican 59.91%

R+24.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 54 = -23.00
  2. Actual margin = 35.854 − 59.915 = -24.061
  3. Signed miss = -23.00 − (-24.061) = 1.061
  4. Absolute miss = |1.061| = 1.061

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6462, race ID 1705 (538 database).