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2000 President · national

Gallup · fieldwork ended 2000-10-19 (19 days before the election) · 718 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 51%

R+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.15% · Republican 47.66%

D+0.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 51 = -11.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.149 − 47.657 = 0.492
  3. Signed miss = -11.00 − (0.492) = -11.492
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.492| = 11.492

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6456, race ID 40 (538 database).