2000 President · WI
St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute · fieldwork ended 2000-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 413 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 39%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.83% · Republican 47.61%
D+0.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 39 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 47.833 − 47.613 = 0.220
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (0.220) = 6.780
- Absolute miss = |6.780| = 6.780
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6452, race ID 854 (538 database).