2000 President · WA
Elway Research · fieldwork ended 2000-10-19 (19 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 37%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.16% · Republican 44.58%
D+5.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 37 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 50.158 − 44.579 = 5.579
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (5.579) = 3.420
- Absolute miss = |3.420| = 3.420
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6451, race ID 853 (538 database).