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2000 Senate · WA

Elway Research · fieldwork ended 2000-10-19 (19 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 46%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.73% · Republican 48.64%

D+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 46 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.730 − 48.640 = 0.090
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (0.090) = -3.091
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.091| = 3.091

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6451, race ID 1713 (538 database).