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2000 President · WI

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-10-20 (18 days before the election) · 587 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 49%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.83% · Republican 47.61%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 49 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.833 − 47.613 = 0.220
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (0.220) = -9.220
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.220| = 9.220

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6447, race ID 854 (538 database).