2000 Senate · WI
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-10-20 (18 days before the election) · 587 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 67% · Republican 24%
D+43.0
The certified result
Democrat 61.54% · Republican 37.04%
D+24.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 67 − 24 = 43.00
- Actual margin = 61.543 − 37.036 = 24.507
- Signed miss = 43.00 − (24.507) = 18.493
- Absolute miss = |18.493| = 18.493
The poll overstated the Democrat by 18.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6447, race ID 1715 (538 database).