Skip to content

2008 House · TX-22

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2008-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 404 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 53%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.36% · Republican 52.43%

R+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 53 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.360 − 52.427 = -7.067
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-7.067) = -9.933
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.933| = 9.933

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64426, race ID 4414 (538 database).