2006 House · NY-26
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 403 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 47%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 38.02% · Republican 42.04%
R+4.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 38.017 − 42.041 = -4.024
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-4.024) = 3.024
- Absolute miss = |3.024| = 3.024
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64425, race ID 3875 (538 database).