2006 House · FL-22
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 401 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 40%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.88% · Republican 47.13%
D+3.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 40 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 50.883 − 47.126 = 3.757
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (3.757) = 5.243
- Absolute miss = |5.243| = 5.243
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64424, race ID 3697 (538 database).