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2006 House · VA-2

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 51%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.45% · Republican 51.27%

R+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 51 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.453 − 51.269 = -2.816
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-2.816) = -5.184
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.184| = 5.184

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64422, race ID 3995 (538 database).