Skip to content

2006 House · MN-6

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 52%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.07% · Republican 50.05%

R+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 52 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.074 − 50.051 = -7.977
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-7.977) = -2.024
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.024| = 2.024

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64418, race ID 3809 (538 database).