Skip to content

2006 House · KY-4

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 42%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.38% · Republican 51.69%

R+8.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 42 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.377 − 51.690 = -8.313
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-8.313) = 11.313
  4. Absolute miss = |11.313| = 11.313

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64417, race ID 3758 (538 database).