2006 House · IL-6
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 54% · Republican 40%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.65% · Republican 51.35%
R+2.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 54 − 40 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 48.648 − 51.351 = -2.703
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (-2.703) = 16.703
- Absolute miss = |16.703| = 16.703
The poll overstated the Democrat by 16.7 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64414, race ID 3723 (538 database).