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2006 House · CO-7

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 40%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.93% · Republican 42.06%

D+12.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 40 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.933 − 42.063 = 12.870
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (12.870) = 1.130
  4. Absolute miss = |1.130| = 1.130

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64412, race ID 3669 (538 database).