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2006 House · AZ-8

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 41%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.26% · Republican 42.09%

D+12.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 41 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.255 − 42.090 = 12.165
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (12.165) = -0.165
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.165| = 0.165

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64411, race ID 3605 (538 database).