1998 House · WI-1
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 38% · Republican 52%
R+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.73% · Republican 57.11%
R+14.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 38 − 52 = -14.00
- Actual margin = 42.730 − 57.108 = -14.378
- Signed miss = -14.00 − (-14.378) = 0.378
- Absolute miss = |0.378| = 0.378
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64408, race ID 2272 (538 database).