1998 House · MS-4
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 33%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.39% · Republican 44.86%
D+8.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 33 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 53.391 − 44.863 = 8.528
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (8.528) = 0.472
- Absolute miss = |0.472| = 0.472
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64401, race ID 2067 (538 database).